Missouri Home Prices in 2026: FHFA Index Data, 1/5/10-Year Trends
Missouri’s housing market has delivered steady, compounding appreciation over the past decade — and 2026 data confirms that momentum has not reversed. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) All-Transactions House Price Index for Missouri (FRED series MOSTHPI), the index stood at 567.45 as of January 2026, up from 543.35 just one year prior. That 4.4% annual gain is modest compared to the pandemic-era surge, but it signals a market that continues to move in one direction: up. Data was retrieved from FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) on 2026-07-20.
1-Year, 5-Year, and 10-Year Price Change Summary
The table below captures how Missouri’s FHFA index has shifted across three time horizons. The story it tells is one of acceleration during the early 2020s and a gradual cooling back toward a more sustainable pace — without any meaningful price decline.
| Period | Index Value (Then) | Index Value (Jan 2026) | Absolute Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year Ago (Jan 2025) | 543.35 | 567.45 | +24.10 | +4.4% |
| 5 Years Ago (Jan 2021) | 374.48 | 567.45 | +192.97 | +51.5% |
| 10 Years Ago (Jan 2016) | 290.05 | 567.45 | +277.40 | +95.6% |
The ten-year picture is striking: Missouri home prices have nearly doubled since 2016, rising 95.6% on the FHFA index. About half of that total gain was compressed into just the five years between 2021 and 2026 (51.5%), driven largely by pandemic-era demand, low interest rates, and constrained inventory. The most recent one-year gain of 4.4% represents a meaningful deceleration from that frenzied pace — a shift buyers should understand when calibrating expectations.
Recent Quarterly Index Values
The table below traces the index across the most recent eight quarters, giving a granular view of how price momentum has evolved since mid-2024.
| Quarter | FHFA Index Value |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 (Apr) | 528.84 |
| Q3 2024 (Jul) | 532.72 |
| Q4 2024 (Oct) | 536.57 |
| Q1 2025 (Jan) | 543.35 |
| Q2 2025 (Apr) | 553.00 |
| Q3 2025 (Jul) | 556.97 |
| Q4 2025 (Oct) | 559.07 |
| Q1 2026 (Jan) | 567.45 |
Quarter-over-quarter gains have been consistent but small — ranging from roughly 3.88 points (Q3 to Q4 2025) to 9.65 points (Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, and Q4 2025 to Q1 2026). There is no sign of a sharp reversal, but there is also no sign of re-acceleration. The index has climbed every single quarter in the dataset, suggesting persistent underlying demand even as the pace fluctuates modestly.
Is the Trend Accelerating or Cooling?
The honest reading is: cooling, but not correcting. The five-year gain of 51.5% was historically exceptional — nearly three times the pace that the prior five years had delivered. The current one-year rate of 4.4% is far closer to long-run historical norms for Midwest housing markets. Buyers should not expect the rapid equity-building of 2020–2022 to repeat itself in the near term. At the same time, the data shows no quarterly decline across the entire recent history presented here, which means waiting for a price drop is a strategy with no statistical support in this dataset.
Looking at the quarterly data, the smallest gain occurred between Q3 and Q4 2025 (556.97 to 559.07, just +2.10 index points). That slowdown in autumn 2025 did not persist into Q1 2026, which posted one of the stronger quarterly jumps in the recent series (+8.38 points). This kind of uneven but persistent upward movement is characteristic of a market in gradual normalization rather than distress.
Missouri vs. Typical National Dynamics
Missouri has generally tracked national price trends but at a somewhat moderated pace. Midwest states like Missouri tend to see lower peak appreciation during boom periods and shallower declines — if any — during corrections. The 51.5% five-year gain is substantial, but national indexes reported gains in the 40–50% range over the same window for many markets. Missouri’s relative affordability compared to coastal states has made it a destination for remote workers and price-sensitive buyers, contributing to sustained demand. The current 4.4% annual gain is consistent with a soft-landing scenario that many housing economists anticipated as rate hikes slowed demand nationally.
About the Data Source
All figures in this article are drawn from the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Missouri, FRED series MOSTHPI, published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and hosted on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED platform (fred.stlouisfed.org). Data was retrieved on 2026-07-20. The FHFA index is calculated using repeat-sales methodology — it tracks price changes on the same properties over time, which reduces compositional bias. It covers transactions financed by conforming conventional mortgages (those purchased or backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac). This means the index excludes cash purchases, jumbo loans, and FHA/VA-financed transactions, which can cause it to diverge from broader market measures in high-price or investor-heavy segments. The index is expressed in index points, not dollars, so it measures the rate of appreciation rather than absolute price levels. It is best used as a directional indicator and trend analysis tool, not as a substitute for median sale price data when budgeting a purchase.
What This Means for Buyers
- Prices are still rising. Every quarter in the dataset shows a higher value than the previous one. Buyers hoping for a dip have no data support for that expectation in Missouri’s recent history.
- The pace has normalized. A 4.4% annual gain is far more manageable than the 51.5% five-year surge that preceded it. Buyers entering now are not buying at the peak of a frenzy.
- The five-year backdrop matters. Anyone who purchased five years ago has seen a 51.5% index gain. New buyers are starting from a much higher base and should model more conservative appreciation going forward.
- Quarterly consistency suggests resilience. The market did not crack in 2024 or 2025 despite elevated mortgage rates. This points to genuine demand, not speculative froth, as the driver of Missouri prices.
- Budget for appreciation, not depreciation. Over a ten-year horizon, the index has risen 95.6%. Buyers planning to hold for five or more years have historically been rewarded in this market.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have Missouri home prices risen in the past year?
According to the FHFA index (MOSTHPI), the Missouri House Price Index rose from 543.35 in January 2025 to 567.45 in January 2026 — an increase of 24.10 index points, or 4.4%. Data source: FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org), retrieved 2026-07-20.
Have Missouri home prices doubled in the last decade?
Nearly. The FHFA index for Missouri was 290.05 in January 2016 and reached 567.45 in January 2026, representing a gain of 277.40 index points — a 95.6% increase over ten years. That falls just short of doubling, but the trajectory is clear.
Is Missouri’s housing market cooling down?
Relative to recent history, yes. The five-year gain of 51.5% (2021–2026) far outpaced the current one-year gain of 4.4%. However, the market has not declined — every quarterly data point in the recent series is higher than the one before it, and Q1 2026 posted one of the stronger quarterly jumps in the recent dataset.
Is now a good time to buy in Missouri based on this data alone?
The index data shows no price declines and a consistent upward trend. Buyers who waited over the past two years in hope of lower prices saw the index move from 528.84 (Q2 2024) to 567.45 (Q1 2026) — a gain of 38.61 index points. The data does not support a timing strategy based on waiting for a correction, though individual affordability and mortgage rate conditions are factors this index does not measure.