South Carolina Home Prices in 2026: FHFA Index Data, 1/5/10-Year Trends
South Carolina’s housing market has been one of the Southeast’s most closely watched stories over the past decade. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) all-transactions House Price Index, the state’s home values have more than doubled since 2016 — a remarkable run that is now showing clear signs of deceleration. This article breaks down exactly what the official data shows, what it means if you are considering buying in South Carolina today, and how the short-term and long-term trends compare.
About the Data Source
All figures in this article come from the FHFA House Price Index for South Carolina, FRED series SCSTHPI, published on FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) and retrieved on 2026-07-21. The FHFA all-transactions index tracks repeat sales and refinancings on single-family properties with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Because it relies on conforming mortgages, it may underrepresent luxury or jumbo-loan markets and areas dominated by cash sales. The index is reported in index points rather than dollar amounts, so it measures relative price change, not median sale prices. Quarterly data points are assigned to the first day of each quarter.
1-Year, 5-Year, and 10-Year Price Changes
The table below shows the FHFA index value at three historical benchmarks compared to the most recent reading of 717.02 as of January 2026.
| Period | Date | Index Value | Absolute Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year Ago | January 2025 | 693.22 | +23.80 | +3.4% |
| 5 Years Ago | January 2021 | 443.05 | +273.97 | +61.8% |
| 10 Years Ago | January 2016 | 333.21 | +383.81 | +115.2% |
The ten-year figure is striking: South Carolina home prices, as measured by the FHFA index, have more than doubled — up 115.2% since January 2016. The five-year gain of 61.8% reflects the pandemic-era surge that accelerated migration into the Carolinas, driven by remote work flexibility, relatively lower costs of living versus Northeastern metros, and population growth in cities like Charleston, Columbia, and Greenville. The most recent one-year gain of just 3.4% tells a very different story: the market has cooled sharply from its peak pace.
Recent Quarterly Price Trend
The table below shows the FHFA index for South Carolina across the eight most recent quarterly data points, giving a ground-level view of where momentum stands right now.
| Quarter | Index Value |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 668.71 |
| July 2024 | 675.13 |
| October 2024 | 682.82 |
| January 2025 | 693.22 |
| April 2025 | 699.66 |
| July 2025 | 708.30 |
| October 2025 | 709.90 |
| January 2026 | 717.02 |
The pattern here is consistent but noticeably slower. From April 2024 through January 2025, the index climbed roughly 24.5 points across three quarters — solid momentum. From April 2025 through October 2025, the index gained only about 10 points across two quarters, before ticking back up to 717.02 in January 2026. The near-flat reading between July 2025 (708.30) and October 2025 (709.90) — a gain of just 1.6 index points — is the most telling signal in the dataset: quarterly appreciation came close to stalling entirely in the second half of 2025 before a modest rebound opened 2026.
Is the Trend Accelerating or Cooling?
The data points in one direction: cooling. The 3.4% annual gain recorded over the past year is a fraction of the rate implied by the five-year trend. If prices had continued rising at the pace set between 2021 and 2026, the index would be far above its current 717.02 reading. Instead, gains have compressed significantly. The near-stall in late 2025 suggests the market absorbed higher borrowing costs and affordability constraints in real time. The January 2026 reading does show a rebound — adding roughly 7 points quarter-over-quarter — so the market has not reversed, but the days of double-digit annual gains appear to be behind this cycle.
What This Means for Buyers
The 1-year versus 5-year picture offers a nuanced message for prospective buyers. The five-year gain of 61.8% means anyone who purchased in South Carolina in early 2021 has seen substantial equity growth. For buyers entering today, that same rapid appreciation is unlikely to repeat in the near term — the data shows a market transitioning toward slower, steadier gains. That is not necessarily bad news: a 3.4% annual appreciation pace is historically normal and suggests less risk of buying at a sharp peak.
- Prices are still rising, not falling. Every quarter in the dataset shows a higher index value than the one before. There is no reversal in the data — only a slowdown.
- The pandemic premium is real and persistent. With prices up 61.8% in five years, affordability has shifted meaningfully. Buyers should model payments carefully at current price levels.
- Late 2025 near-stall may signal a window. The October 2025 reading of 709.90 was barely above July 2025’s 708.30. Periods of slow appreciation can offer buyers more negotiating leverage than the rapid-rise years allowed.
- Long-term holders have been rewarded. The 115.2% ten-year gain underscores that South Carolina has been a strong long-term market. Buyers with a five-to-ten-year horizon have historical precedent for confidence, even entering at today’s index level.
- Watch quarterly readings going forward. Whether the January 2026 rebound to 717.02 is the start of re-acceleration or a one-quarter bounce will become clearer in the April 2026 report.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have South Carolina home prices risen in the last year?
According to the FHFA all-transactions index (FRED: SCSTHPI, retrieved 2026-07-21), the South Carolina House Price Index rose from 693.22 in January 2025 to 717.02 in January 2026 — an increase of 23.80 index points, or 3.4%.
How much have prices risen over five years?
The index stood at 443.05 in January 2021. By January 2026 it had reached 717.02, a gain of 273.97 points — representing a 61.8% increase over five years.
Is the South Carolina housing market slowing down?
The recent quarterly data strongly suggests a slowdown. The index gained only 1.6 points between July 2025 and October 2025, compared to gains of roughly 6 to 10 points in earlier quarters. The annual appreciation rate of 3.4% is well below the five-year compounded pace, indicating the market has shifted from its pandemic-era surge to a more moderate trajectory.
Does this index reflect actual dollar sale prices?
No. The FHFA House Price Index measures relative price change using repeat sales and refinancing transactions on conforming mortgages. It reports index points, not median or average dollar sale prices. It is best used to understand directional trends and percentage changes rather than to determine what a specific home might cost in a given city or ZIP code.