Montana Home Prices in 2026: FHFA Index Data, 1/5/10-Year Trends
Montana’s housing market has been one of the more closely watched in the Mountain West over the past decade. Using the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) All-Transactions House Price Index for Montana — retrieved from FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) on 2026-07-18 — this article breaks down exactly how much home values have moved over the past one, five, and ten years, and what that trajectory means if you are considering buying in the state today.
The Headline Numbers: 1, 5, and 10-Year Changes
The FHFA index for Montana stood at 817.53 as of January 2026. The table below shows how that compares to where the index sat one, five, and ten years earlier.
| Period | Date | Index Value | Absolute Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year Ago | January 2025 | 796.36 | +21.17 | +2.7% |
| 5 Years Ago | January 2021 | 515.48 | +302.05 | +58.6% |
| 10 Years Ago | January 2016 | 383.52 | +434.01 | +113.2% |
The ten-year gain of 113.2% is striking by any measure. To put it simply, a home that indexed at a value of 383 in early 2016 now indexes above 817 — more than doubling. The five-year gain of 58.6% captures the explosive pandemic-era run-up that reshaped Montana’s affordability landscape. The one-year gain of just 2.7% tells a very different, more cautious story.
Recent Quarterly Trend
The quarterly data points below reveal the texture of price movement since mid-2024. This is where buyers get the clearest picture of current momentum.
| Quarter | FHFA Index Value |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 776.29 |
| July 2024 | 775.12 |
| October 2024 | 789.34 |
| January 2025 | 796.36 |
| April 2025 | 799.69 |
| July 2025 | 812.58 |
| October 2025 | 805.83 |
| January 2026 | 817.53 |
Several things stand out. The index was essentially flat between April and July 2024 — 776.29 versus 775.12 — suggesting a brief stall in price growth. From there, prices climbed steadily through mid-2025, reaching 812.58 in July 2025. There was a modest dip to 805.83 in October 2025 before the index recovered to its current high of 817.53 in January 2026. The overall pattern is one of slow, uneven appreciation rather than the steep gains seen in 2021 and 2022. The market is moving, but it is grinding rather than sprinting.
Accelerating or Cooling? Reading the Trend
Compared to the pandemic surge — when the five-year index gain reached 58.6% — the current one-year gain of 2.7% represents a significant deceleration. That is not the same as a decline. Prices are still reaching new index highs, but the velocity has slowed considerably. The brief quarterly dip in October 2025 followed by a January 2026 recovery is consistent with typical seasonal patterns in colder-climate markets, where buyer activity softens in fall and early winter.
For buyers, this moderation is meaningful. The frenzied, over-asking-price environment that defined Montana between 2020 and 2022 appears to have given way to something more measured. That said, the base from which gains are being measured is dramatically higher than it was five or ten years ago. A 2.7% annual gain on an index of 817 still represents real dollars of appreciation.
How This Compares to Typical National Dynamics
Nationally, home price appreciation has also cooled from pandemic peaks, with many metro markets settling into low single-digit annual gains or, in some cases, modest corrections. Montana’s 2.7% one-year gain is broadly in line with that national cooling trend. However, Montana’s five-year and ten-year appreciation rates of 58.6% and 113.2% respectively suggest the state outpaced many national averages during the high-growth years — driven in part by remote-work migration, lifestyle demand for outdoor amenities, and relatively limited housing supply in markets like Bozeman and Missoula. Buyers arriving today inherit that elevated price base, which is the central affordability challenge the data reflects.
About the Data Source
All figures in this article come from FRED series MTSTHPI (Montana House Price Index), published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and available at fred.stlouisfed.org. The FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index is a repeat-transactions index, meaning it tracks price changes for the same properties over time using data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming mortgage transactions. This makes it a reliable measure of price trends rather than a dollar-denominated median sale price. Key limitations: the index does not capture jumbo loans or cash transactions, it is reported with a lag, and it represents the entire state of Montana rather than specific cities or counties — local market conditions in Bozeman can differ substantially from those in Havre or Miles City. Data was retrieved on 2026-07-18.
What This Means for Buyers
Here are the concrete takeaways from the data for anyone considering a Montana home purchase:
- The rapid appreciation era appears to be over — for now. A 2.7% annual gain versus 58.6% over five years signals the market has shifted into a lower gear. Buyers are no longer competing against the same feverish conditions as 2021.
- Prices are at all-time index highs. Despite the slowdown, the index hit 817.53 in January 2026 — its highest recorded point in this dataset. There is no evidence of a broad price correction; affordability pressure remains real.
- The five-year picture argues against waiting for a crash. A 58.6% gain over five years shows this market has strong structural demand. Buyers hoping for a dramatic pullback have limited data support for that expectation.
- Seasonal dips may create short windows. The October 2025 dip to 805.83 followed by a January 2026 recovery suggests fall and early winter could offer slightly softer negotiating conditions, consistent with lower buyer competition.
- Know your submarket. The FHFA index covers all of Montana. Urban markets with high in-migration will likely show stronger appreciation than rural areas. Use this index as a statewide baseline, not a neighborhood-level guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have Montana home prices dropped recently?
Not on a year-over-year basis. The index rose from 796.36 in January 2025 to 817.53 in January 2026, a gain of 2.7%. There was a quarter-over-quarter dip between July 2025 (812.58) and October 2025 (805.83), but the index recovered to a new high by January 2026.
How much have Montana home prices risen over five years?
The FHFA index rose from 515.48 in January 2021 to 817.53 in January 2026 — an increase of 302.05 index points, or 58.6%, according to the FRED data.
Is the Montana housing market slowing down?
Yes, relative to its recent history. The one-year gain of 2.7% is a fraction of the five-year compound pace. The quarterly data since mid-2024 shows slow, uneven progress rather than rapid acceleration, which indicates a cooling but not collapsing market.
What does the FHFA index not tell me?
It does not provide dollar-denominated home prices, jumbo or cash transaction data, or city-level breakdowns. It is a statewide index best used for understanding directional trends over time, not for pricing a specific property in a specific neighborhood.