Tennessee Home Prices in 2026: FHFA Index Data, 1/5/10-Year Trends
Tennessee’s housing market has been one of the more closely watched in the South over the past decade, attracting relocating families, remote workers, and investors alike. Official data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), published through FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) and retrieved on 2026-07-16, now gives us a clear statistical picture of where prices stand and how they got here. The headline number: the Tennessee FHFA House Price Index reached 704.14 as of January 2026, more than double its level from a decade ago.
The FHFA Index: What It Measures and Its Limitations
The data used in this article comes from FRED series TNSTHPI, the Tennessee All-Transactions House Price Index published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. This index tracks the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same single-family properties, drawing from mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Because it measures the same homes over time, it is a reliable gauge of appreciation rather than a shift in the mix of homes sold. However, it has meaningful limitations: it excludes cash purchases, jumbo loans, and FHA/VA-backed mortgages, which means it may not fully capture activity at the very top or bottom of the market. The index is reported in index points rather than dollar values, so it shows direction and magnitude of change, not a median sale price. Values are quarterly and may be subject to revision.
1, 5, and 10-Year Price Changes at a Glance
The table below summarizes how the Tennessee FHFA index has changed over three key time horizons, all measured against the January 2026 value of 704.14.
| Time Period | Date | Index Value | Absolute Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year Ago | January 2025 | 680.25 | +23.89 | +3.5% |
| 5 Years Ago | January 2021 | 443.28 | +260.86 | +58.8% |
| 10 Years Ago | January 2016 | 316.43 | +387.71 | +122.5% |
These figures tell a story in three chapters. Over ten years, the index has more than doubled — a 122.5% gain that reflects sustained population growth, low inventory, and years of economic expansion across the state. The five-year gain of 58.8% captures the pandemic-era surge, when remote work migration and record-low mortgage rates drove extraordinary demand into Tennessee’s cities and suburbs. The most recent one-year gain of 3.5% signals a distinct cooldown: prices are still rising, but the blistering pace of 2021–2023 has given way to something closer to a steady drift upward.
Recent Quarterly Trend (2024–2026)
The quarterly data points below offer a ground-level view of momentum over the past two years. Each entry represents a snapshot of the index at the start of the listed quarter.
| Quarter | Index Value |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 664.92 |
| July 2024 | 671.13 |
| October 2024 | 677.56 |
| January 2025 | 680.25 |
| April 2025 | 690.05 |
| July 2025 | 695.99 |
| October 2025 | 698.90 |
| January 2026 | 704.14 |
Quarter-to-quarter gains have been consistent but modest, ranging from roughly 2 to 10 index points per quarter. Notably, the largest single-quarter jump in this window occurred between January 2025 and April 2025 (an increase of 9.80 points), while the October 2025 to January 2026 gain of 5.24 points was more measured. There is no evidence of acceleration in recent quarters — the trend is positive but flattening, suggesting the market has shifted from a frenzy into a period of gradual, more sustainable appreciation.
Is the Trend Accelerating or Cooling?
The data clearly shows cooling relative to the five-year picture. A 58.8% gain over five years averages out to roughly 9–10% per year at its peak pace. The most recent one-year gain of 3.5% is well below that average, pointing to meaningful deceleration. This is not a price decline — every quarter in the dataset shows a higher value than the one before it — but the rate of increase has moderated substantially. For buyers who were priced out during the 2021–2023 surge, this slower appreciation environment is a more manageable one, even if affordability challenges created by that earlier surge have not been fully unwound.
What This Means for Buyers
If you are considering buying a home in Tennessee, here are the concrete takeaways the data supports:
- Prices are still rising, just more slowly. The index has gained 3.5% over the past year and has risen in every quarter shown. Waiting for a price drop is not what the data currently supports — but neither is urgency born of a fast-moving market.
- The five-year surge has permanently reset the baseline. A 58.8% gain since January 2021 means buyers today are entering at a fundamentally higher price floor than those who bought before the pandemic boom. That context matters for budgeting and down payment planning.
- The 10-year doubling is a long-term endorsement of the market. A 122.5% gain over a decade is a strong argument that Tennessee has durable demand drivers — population inflows, job growth, and relative affordability compared to coastal metros — that have supported consistent appreciation.
- Gradual appreciation may favor patient buyers. With quarterly gains now in the low single digits, buyers have more time to shop, negotiate, and conduct due diligence than they did during the frenzied years of rapid increases.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have Tennessee home prices risen in the last year?
According to the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index (FRED series TNSTHPI), the Tennessee index rose from 680.25 in January 2025 to 704.14 in January 2026 — an increase of 23.89 index points, or 3.5%.
How does the 5-year change compare to the 1-year change?
The five-year gain of 58.8% (from 443.28 in January 2021 to 704.14 in January 2026) dwarfs the most recent one-year gain of 3.5%. This confirms that the extraordinary appreciation of the pandemic era has significantly slowed, though prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
Have Tennessee home prices ever declined recently?
Based on the quarterly data available in this dataset (April 2024 through January 2026), no — the index has increased in every single quarter without exception. The data does not show any quarter-over-quarter decline in this period.
Is this index the same as a median home price?
No. The FHFA index measures the percentage change in prices for the same properties over time and is expressed in index points, not dollars. It is a measure of appreciation, not an absolute price level. It also excludes cash transactions and non-conforming loans, so it captures a specific segment of the market rather than all sales.
All data sourced from FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org), series TNSTHPI, retrieved 2026-07-16. Index values are subject to revision by the FHFA.